The Kremlin has already declared the visit as "a very important visit"
In foreign policy, it has been often argued that interest defines the nature of relationship between countries. But beyond these realistic interpretations of foreign policy, the role of historical relations, mutual trust and respect for sovereign choices and cultural engagements shape much deeper relations among nations.
 
India and Russia share that special relationship, beyond being strategic partners. The special and privileged relationship between two nations built upon de-ideologization and universal security is deeper than traditional strategic partnerships. That Narendra Modi is visiting Russia (on July 8-9, 2024, for the 22nd India-Russia Summit with President Vladimir Putin) as his first bilateral outing post his third term as Indian Prime Minister demonstrates the seriousness that both nations offer in their mutual engagements.

The timing of his visit is equally worthy of serious attention. A brief history of the recent past in the post-globalisation scenario shows that the world order has been seriously challenged by the non-western world. A multi-polar world order is a reality but the old-order is yet to be dismantled.
 
Arguably, the rise of multilateral institutions like G-20, BRICS, and SCO has further challenged the old system. The shift is fascinating and notable. Indian foreign policy is chasing that dream of being non-aligned. India is telling the western world that it doesn’t believe in a hierarchical world order that suits the agenda for a few privileged nations.
 
India's stature under Prime Minister Modi has gone beyond its old position of being a reluctant middle power and the fact is that having growing expectations from India is one of the most notable shifts in the multi-aligned world order. In the aftermath of the Ukraine war, India has been under serious pressure from the US and its European allies to restrict its relations with Russia.

However, this hasn't happened. India-Russia relations are still the most steady and successful foreign policy achievement since India's independence. 
 
Limitless Sky, or the Act of Continuity
 
India and Russia have cemented their relationship on P3 (Peace, Process and Prosperity).
 
In 2023, the two countries celebrated 30 years of signing the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation of 1993. Their special relationship is highly institutionalised. They meet each year bilaterally besides sharing the platform on multilateral forums. Russian President Putin has visited India on nine occasions; India has equally reciprocated and in a much wider context.

Russia has been India's closest defence partner historically, since the 1990s till recent years, for 60-70 percent of Indian army weapons, 65-75 percent of its air force systems, and more than 80 per cent of its navy platforms.
 
India Russia relations have found a new trajectory through ministerial, inter-governmental and multilateral levels of comprehensive cooperation in security, defence, energy (nuclear and beyond) technology and beyond and eyeing a free trade agreement.
 
The fallout of the Ukraine War has dramatically changed India’s trade relations with Russia. India has augmented purchases of both coking and thermal coal from Russia at substantial discounts. After the Ukraine War, India became the second most important partner for Russia to minimise the impact of western sanctions. The current bilateral relationship is highly favoured in Russia. Russian oil now accounts for nearly 20 percent of India’s annual crude imports, up from just 2 per cent in 2021. Also, for the first time, India received coal via train route from Russia along the International North-South Transport Corridor via Iran.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar visited Russia on December 25- 29, 2023; he met President Putin and held discussions with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. It is believed that this was the time when Prime Minister Modi’s upcoming visit was formalised.
    
The Road Ahead
 
PM Modi participated in the G-7 meeting in Italy last month and also met Western counterparts including US President Biden but he did not attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Kazakhstan's Astana, giving preference to the ongoing Parliament session back home.
 
As a third-term Prime Minister, choosing Russia for his first bilateral visit reflects his vision for the larger foreign policy issues. It is also interesting that PM Modi is visiting Russia when the US and its European allies are under serious pressure due to domestic issues clouding their future amidst elections. The US, UK, Germany, France and other European countries have failed to achieve any objective in pressuring Russia despite emboldening Ukraine to sustain the War by providing all support possible one could imagine. 

PM Modi's visit would be seen as India's current positioning and strategic autonomy. It’s a mixture of eyeing new avenues with an act of commitment to its sovereign choice. Economic, defence and other issues would be the most significant for bilateral relations including the discussion on supply of the S-400 weapons system and term of transactions - Russia has reportedly informed New Delhi that it won’t be accepting Indian currency for trade and India can’t do the transaction in dollars due to US sanctions. Whether they can manage to find a mutually agreed position on that issue would be another critical element.
 
The Kremlin has already declared the visit as "a very important visit". For Prime Minister Modi, it would be a test of his approach and ability to forge a formidable position in sustaining the multi-aligned world order representing the Global South.
 
*** The writer teaches at Nelson Mandela Centre for Peace & Conflict Resolution, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi; views expressed here are his own